Not Business as Usual 

Projections for Rural Community Growth by Evelyn Clark

According to BC Stats, projected population growth for British Columbia between 2011 and 2036 is about 1.2%, significantly lower than the 1.7% experienced form 1985 to today. As well, it is indicated that strongest growth will take place in the Lower Mainland with rural growth, with the exception of the booming Northwest, will continue to age and population growth will slow.1        

What does this mean for rural communities given that a larger senior population has ramifications for small businesses, tax bases and community focus?

Currently people considered seniors in our world have perks that younger people do not. In British Columbia, seniors sail free on BC Ferries during the mid-week, they frequently have no-fee bank accounts, senior’s menus at many restaurants and small business discounts from 10 – 25%. In BC senior citizens currently receive a 49.8% grant on the property taxes. In 2036, almost a quarter of the residents of BC will be aged 65 and older.2  Can we then afford to given ¼ of our population the discounts offered to seniors in 2012?

Currently models for rural communities can be called a “growth” model. “Total growth in a community consists of the net employment and resident population effects of primary industry growth, service industry expansion, primary or indirect commercial development and primary or indirect residential development.”3But what happens when our rural population flat line and our elderly population increases? Retirees have a different economic focus. Rather than growth, retirees often have an interest in maintenance. More retirees are mortgage-free, require less consumer goods than growing families and use service industries more often. As well, retirees require more medical services as they age.

All of these trends suggest that in aging rural communities it may not be business as usual. As our small business owners retire out of their businesses, communities and their leaders may have to look toward community efficiencies and concentration of services rather than development of big box stores and far-flung malls.

Now is the time to prepare for the demographic shift in BC rural communities and take a pro-active stance in our community development plans. Communities will age, the population landscape will change. How we respond to those changes now will assist in creating vibrant communities for the next 20 years.

 

1   British Columbia in 2036, BC Stats, Storen, J, Sept, 2011
2   British Columbia in 2036, BC Stats, Storen, J, Sept, 2011
3   THE ECONOMICS OF COMMUNITY GROWTH:AN IMPACT MODEL, Kenneth C. Clayton and David Whittington, 1977    

Rural Community Growth – Where Is It Coming From?
Behind the Mainland, Vancouver Island ranks second in small business distribution by region at 18.1% of the businesses being small businesses, with small business employment impacting some 1,038,300 people in 2011.1Vancouver Island and the Sunshine Coast are home to over 15,500 of those businesses impacting some 54,000 employees. 2

Combine those statistics with the projections that our population in Canada will flat line and British Columbia is slated to have a projected “elderly dependency ratio” of 44.6% - third highest behind Atlantic Canada and Quebec 3and one has to ask the question, “Well who will replace our population?” and “Where will our entrepreneurs come from?”

BC Stats has recently completed a study entitled BC and Regional Population Projections, 2011 to 2036 where they state that “The major factor driving population growth over this period will be migration to BC. International migration will account for 77.4% of the population gain, followed by interprovincial migration at 17.3% and natural increase (births minus deaths) at about 5.3%.” 4

According to the 2011 Census, British Columbia had some 1,170,000 immigrants with some 55% arriving from Asia, 31% from Europe and 10% from North and South America combined.5 Given that the first place most immigrants will land is urban centres, it may take some time for them to travel to rural communities. But inevitably they will leave urban centres for the promise of economic prosperity.

Immigrants have proven productive and innovative for Canada as confirmed by the recent Conference Board of Canada study that stated, productivity and innovation are critical for economic development. At every level of analysis, immigrants are shown to have an impact on innovation performance that is benefiting Canada.” 6

It is time to take a proactive attitude when it comes to shaping our economic future. David Turpin, and vice-chancellor of the University of Victoria states it best, “It speaks to the importance of reaching out to the world and indicating that BC is a place for the best and the brightest to come. Like modern economies everywhere, BC is counting on innovation and technology to raise productivity and help shape a bright and prosperous future.” 7 

 

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1BC Small Business Profile,  http://www.resourcecentre.gov.bc.ca/pdf/SmallBusProfileEngWeb.pdf, 2010
2Venture Connect Presentation, Camirie, L, 2012
3The Effects of Mass Immigration on Canadian Living Standards, Merett, M, Fraser Institute, 2009
4BC Population Projections, BC Stats, Ministry of Labour, 2010
5Where Are Canada’s Immigrants Coming From, Johnson, R, National Post, 2012
6Immigrants Help Boost Canada’s Innovation, Keung, N, thestar.com, 2010
7 Immigration need to Drive BC Innovation, www.techvibe.com, 2009